2024 Election: Latest news on the Iowa caucuses

Donald Trump has hosted massive rallies in Iowa, speaking to hundreds and sometimes thousands of people at once. If fewer than 400 attended, it was considered a small event.

The ex-president looks likely to win Monday’s contest handily having done very little, if any, of the small-scale campaigning that used to be required to win. Iowa is no longer universally seen as the stepping stone it once was.

Eric Garcia and Gustaf Kilander explain how Mr Trump upended the state’s caucus system:

Political analysts hoping for clues about the trajectory of the rest of the primary, and most crucially an answer to the question of whether anyone has a chance at beating Mr Trump, are looking at Iowa closely. Monday’s results will likely determine the fate of several candidates, while also providing a window for speculation about the general election.

Here’s what The Independent is keeping an eye on over the weekend:

In a typical presidential election year, candidates will spend the 11 months leading up to Election Day shaking hands and kissing babies at rallies as the primaries unfold.

Instead, the ex-president will be forced to juggle his campaign for the White House while also defending himself in federal and state courts in four different trials that are currently set to occur between January and May.

Kicking off with E Jean Carroll’s damages trial on the same day as the Iowa Caucus to his federal classified documents trial one month before the GOP convention, Mr Trump’s jam-packed schedule seemingly leaves little time for him to socialise outside of a courtroom.

How Mr Trump will manage his campaign while convincing voters he’s innocent of it all – including alleged efforts to overturn previous elections in his favour – remains to be seen.

All eyes will be on the race to secure the Republican nomination, with front-runner Donald Trump expected to cement his commanding lead over his rivals in the polls as the likes of Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy seek to make an impact and prove they have the support to mount a meaningful challenge.

For Democrats, the matter is much more straightforward: they will simply gather in gyms, schools, libraries and churches across the state’s 1,657 precincts (spread over 99 counties) to elect delegates to send to the county conventions in March, the next step to selecting the delegates that will attend the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

Despite sub-zero temperatures and snow being forecast, the state Republican Party chair Jeff Kaufmann has insisted: “We have done everything humanly possible to ensure that this caucus comes off without a hitch.”

So when can we expect to find out the results?

A man in Iowa stood up at a recent town hall and told Ron DeSantis he had an “easy” question: how would the Florida governor address abortion when it’s sure to be a big issue in the coming 2024 presidential election?

DeSantis said he’d talk about it “the same way I did in Florida. I just articulated kind of, you know, where we were, what we do.”

He continued for nearly four minutes without using the word “abortion.” He instead criticized his rival Donald Trump for failing to appear in debates and Nikki Haley for her campaign trail gaffes.

Abortion has largely been absent as an issue in the lead-up to this year’s Iowa Republican caucuses, a remarkable change in a state that has long backed religious conservatives vowing to restrict the procedure. Part of the change is because Republicans achieved a generational goal when the Supreme Court overturned a federally guaranteed right to abortion. But it also underscores a pervasive fear among Republican candidates and voters alike that vocalizing their desire to further restrict abortion rights in 2024 has become politically dangerous.

Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterms and several state races last year campaigning on the issue. And President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign plans to make abortion rights central to its strategy this year.

Wednesday night’s duelling displays proved favourable for Mr Trump, whose Fox News town hall was watched by 4.3 million people, according to Nielsen Media Research.

By contrast, Ms Haley and Mr DeSantis appeared on CNN at the same time but were only viewed by 2.6 million people.

The competing events were broadcast just days before the Iowa caucuses — the first-in-the-nation chance for voters to officially throw their support behind the candidates of their choice.

Following in the footsteps of the Michigan Supreme Court, justices on the Oregon Supreme Court said they would not take up the petition but left the door open to revisit the issue after the US Supreme Court rules on the matter.

Ariana Baio has the details:

A member of Florida Gov Ron DeSantis’ security team brought a protester to the ground at the 2024 hopeful’s campaign event in Iowa.

Videos from Thursday’s campaign event show the demonstrator standing up in the middle of Mr DeSantis’ speech, holding up a yellow banner that read “DeSantis: Climate Criminal” while yelling, “how much money are you taking from oil companies?”

Footage captured the security guard quickly crossing the stage in front of the Republican nominee and tackling the protester. Mr DeSantis appeared alarmed at first as he watched the scene play out.

The incident occurred on Saturday after the Florida governor staged a town hall in Atlantic, Iowa. An unidentified man approached Mr DeSantis, holding a small award.

Former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley repeatedly called Florida governor Ron DeSantis a liar while both candidates criticised front-runner Donald Trump in the final debate before the Iowa caucus on Wednesday evening.

Last night’s CNN debate in Des Moines came five days before Republicans across the Hawkeye State gather in public meeting spaces to make their decision about who they support to be the Republican nominee for president.

DeSantis, the once-promising governor who had hoped his hard-right policies on everything from abortion to restricting how gender and sexuality are taught in schools would bolster him in the heavily church-going Iowa, elected to regularly attack Haley.

Eric Garcia watched the action.