Foreign Policy: How will the potential war between Russia and NATO look like? | policy

Foreign Policy Magazine said that Russia planned to invade Ukraine as a decisive campaign for three days, during which the government was overthrown in Kiev, but this scenario is still, after more than three years, a distant dream of Russia.

The magazine explained – in an article written by researcher Fabian Hoffman – that European countries in NATO (NATO) rushed to redeem themselves, in preparation for any Russian attack on one of its members within years, and perhaps 6 months of the end of the war in Ukraine, according to Danish officials.

Although it is difficult to reconcile the two pictures drawn by Russia, as a country that failed to achieve its ambitions in Ukraine, then as an existential threat to NATO, understanding this paradox lies in realizing that a war between NATO and Russia will not be aimed at seizing wide lands, but destroying the coalition as a political and military entity, and this will not require the defeat of the NATO forces in an open battle and crawling Towards Berlin, but rather the destruction and determination of the NATO unit, with the Kremlin’s bet that the coalition will crack under pressure.

Shinking NATO political cohesion

Unlike the aggressive Russian propaganda, the political and military elites in Moscow realize that Russia will likely lose a comprehensive traditional war with NATO, even without the intervention of the United States, and therefore, it will seek to avoid a comprehensive war and focus on breaking the will of the bloc.

No Russian attack on NATO will aim primarily to destroy the overall ability of the alliance to launch war, but rather will focus on a short and high -density campaign designed to tear the political cohesion of NATO.

This scenario may start with a limited penetration into the NATO lands at a weak weakness in one or more Baltic countries, and after the initial attack, Russia may declare that any attempt to restore the occupied region will ignite a nuclear escalation, a strategy called by military analysts “aggressive fortification”.

Although Russian decision -makers do not expect a surrender throughout NATO, they may believe that the United States and its main allies in Western Europe, when facing real consequences on their lands, will hesitate and refrain from defending their partners, knowing that any hesitation in defending NATO means the actual collapse of the coalition, which is Russia’s main goal and the condition of confirming its regional dominance, according to the magazine.

What does Russia need?

However, the Russian move requires a rapid offensive force capable of penetrating the NATO borders, and it also requires sufficient follow -up forces to occupy a small part, but it is of strategic importance from NATO lands, then to traditional mobile forces to control and keep the lands.

Recent intelligence reports indicate that Russia has managed to mobilize enough men not only to cover its combat losses, but to expand its forces, and Western officials indicate that it produces more equipment and ammunition, including modern tanks and artillery shells more than they send to the front.

The writer stated that Russia has a good nuclear situation, with a stock of about two thousand non -strategic warheads, in addition to a traditional weapon that includes the production of about 1,200 wild offensive cruise missiles, 400 short and medium -range ballistic missiles, and more than 6000 long -range drones annually, and they seek to increase this production.

How does NATO prepare?

Although launching a Russian attack on NATO lands remains excluded, Europe must prepare for the war that Russia is likely to plan, a war that differs greatly from the prolonged conflict that is now revealing in Ukraine, according to the writer.

The best way to confront a short and high -severity Russian campaign – according to the writer – is to prevent any penetration on the border, and this requires a reliable front defensive situation, which NATO still lacks, because enabling the front defense means transferring more forces and equipment to the confrontation line, but the United States turns its focus to other places, and it is possible to withdraw its combat formations from Europe.

To create a deterrent, European countries must invest in what makes them able to attack a counter, while clarifying their willingness to immediately respond, including against Russian vital infrastructure, while explaining that it does not seek nuclear escalation and that it will not be broken to nuclear threats.

The writer concluded that it would be reckless not to be prepared for the war to prevent its occurrence in the first place, because if Moscow faces NATO, it will take advantage of its weaknesses and play on its strengths.