World to miss carbon zero target on current trajectory: BP

RIYADH: The world is set to miss its target of becoming carbon net zero by 2050, according to a new analysis by BP.

The company’s Energy Outlook 2022 report sets out three scenarios for the transition to a greener system, but does not see carbon emissions reaching zero in the timeframe in any of them.

The ‘New Momentum’ scenario — which is “designed to capture the broad trajectory along which the global energy system is currently progressing” — sees carbon emissions standing at around 30 percent by 2050.

Even in the ‘Net Zero’ scenario — which factors in a shift in societal behavior and preferences which further supports gains in energy efficiency and the adoption of low-carbon energy sources — would still leave carbon emissions at around 2.5 percent. 

The middle scenario — ‘Accelerated’ — sees carbon emissions on 10 percent by 2050.

In the introduction to the report, BP’s Chief Economist Spencer Dale said that despite a new enthusiasm for carbon reduction “other than the COVID-19-induced dip in 2020, carbon emissions have risen in every year since 2015, the year of the Paris COP.” 

He added: “The carbon budget is finite, and it is running out: further delays in reducing CO2 emissions could greatly increase the economic and social costs associated with trying to remain within the carbon budget.”

The report also forecasts that in the next 30 years, oil demand will increase to above its pre-COVID-19 level before falling further out, due to the increasing efficiency and electrification of road transportation.

Additionally, wind and solar power will expand rapidly, accounting for all or most of the increase in global power generation, underpinned by continuing falls in their costs and an increasing ability of power systems to integrate high concentrations of variable power sources. 

“The growth in wind and solar power requires a substantial increase in the pace of investment in both new capacity and enabling technologies and infrastructure,” the report says.