Trump projected to win 2024 Iowa Caucuses: Live updates
How does the Iowa Caucus pick the next US president? | Decomplicated
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Donald Trump is projected to win the 2024 Iowa caucuses, with the Associated Press and news networks calling the race shortly after 8.30pm.
Life-threatening cold weather conditions may have impacted voter turnout at the 2024 Iowa caucus as subzero temperatures and an extreme wind chill leave most of the state in blizzard-like conditions.
Caucus meetings are still underway with Republican presidential candidates Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy asking voters to make their way out to their local precinct and participate in the first-in-the-nation caucus.
But with wind chill values of -25°F to -35°F and frostbite possible within 10 minutes of outdoor exposure, it’s unclear if voters will make their way to support the candidates vying for second place behind the current Republican frontrunner and former president.
In final Iowa polling, Mr Trump held a substantial lead over the other candidates.
Mr DeSantis and Ms Haley are currently fighting for second place, hoping it will give their campaigns a boost ahead of the New Hampshire primary.
Results are expected to start rolling in over the next few hours.
BREAKING: Trump overwhelmingly wins the Iowa caucuses in first step toward Republican nomination
Former president Donald Trump overwhelminngly won the Iowa caucuses on Monday evening in the first official contest of the Republican presidential primaries.
Mr Trump posted a double-digit victory in Iowa eight years after he lost the Iowa caucuses to Sen Ted Cruz of Texas. The former president far-outpaced his nearest competitor, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who served as US ambassador to the United Nations in his administration.
Mr Trump also defeated Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, whom he spent the better part of a year criticising even before his former protege entered the Republican presidential primary, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.
The former president’s win gives him an on-ramp for another win in the New Hampshire primary, where he leads Ms Haley in all polls and his lead varies depending on which survey.
In addition, the former president also leads in Ms Haley’s home state of South Carolina.
Oliver O’Connell16 January 2024 01:39
Trump delivers remarks at Iowa caucus meeting
This is the beginning. Right now it is starting. This is the beginning of something important. It’s the most important election in the history of our country.
So I would appreciate your vote. I think I deserve it. We had the greatest country. We were a great nation three years ago and today people are laughing at us. It’s not going to happen. I just want to thank everybody. Get out and vote. I will see you later. Thank you very much.
Oliver O’Connell16 January 2024 01:33
Oliver O’Connell16 January 2024 01:30
Many in the survey want the federal government to back away from world affairs. Half say the United States should take a less active role in resolving global issues. About 3 in 10 say the current role is about right, while 2 in 10 say the U.S. should expand its foreign engagement.
There is also a difference of opinion on which countries the U.S. should help. About two-thirds of Iowa caucusgoers favor continuing aid to Israel in its fight against Hamas. But about 6 in 10 oppose the ongoing aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Views on abortion are far from simple, but most Iowa GOP caucusgoers say there should be limited access to the procedure.
About 2 in 10 say that abortion should be illegal in all cases. About an additional half say it should be illegal in most cases. The rest say it should be legal in most or all cases. About three-quarters of those attending the caucuses support banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, and about two-thirds favor a ban at six weeks of pregnancy.
Indicted multiple times in 2023, Trump faces the risk of one or more criminal convictions this year. But that appears to have done little damage to his reputation as the charges are seen through a political lens.
About three-quarters say the charges are political attempts to undermine Trump, rather than legitimate attempts to investigate important issues.
Still, about one-quarter say Trump has done something illegal when it comes to at least one of the legal cases he is facing: his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, riot at the U.S. Capitol, his alleged attempts to interfere in the vote count in the 2020 presidential election or the discovery of classified documents at his Florida home that were supposed to be in government custody.
Few last-minute decisions
About two-thirds of caucus attendees say they decided whom they would support more than a month ago, including about 4 in 10 saying they have known all along. About 2 in 10 say they only decided in the past few days. Most Iowans attending a caucus have done so before, but about 3 in 10 are first-time participants.
Caucusgoers want sweeping changes to how the federal government is run, suggesting they care far more about disruption than seeking common ground. About 3 in 10 say they are seeking a complete and total upheaval. About an additional 6 in 10 caucusgoers say they want substantial changes.
The vast majority of Iowa caucusgoers trust elections in their state, but about 4 in 10 are not too confident or not at all confident in the integrity of U.S. elections. Nearly 6 in 10 have little to no confidence in the American legal system.
Among Republicans, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is something of an anti-Trump option, even though she was his U.N. ambassador.
She is the top candidate of GOP caucusgoers who say Trump did something illegal when it comes to at least one of the criminal cases against him. Among those who say they are caucusing for Haley, about 4 in 10 voted in the 2020 presidential election for Democrat Joe Biden, who defeated Trump. Haley also appears competitive with Trump among people who say foreign policy is the top issue facing the country. Most of Haley’s supporters have a college degree, more so than among supporters of Trump.
Florida Gov Ron DeSantis performs best among the caucusgoers who are dissatisfied with Trump but say they would ultimately vote for him in the general election. DeSantis’ supporters are more likely than those for other candidates to say they think abortion should always be illegal.
About 3 in 10 caucusgoers supporting biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy are under age 30, compared with only about 1 in 10 of those backing any of the other top candidates. Ramaswamy, 38, has tried to emphasize his youth as an advantage.
Trump’s other strengths
Caucusgoers who care foremost about immigration or the economy are most likely to be in Trump’s camp.
Among those who identified immigration as the most important issue for the nation, roughly two-thirds back Trump. Those participating on Monday agreed with his hard-line stance on finding ways to limit immigration.
About 9 in 10 of GOP caucusgoers back building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, with about 7 in 10 expressing strong support for the idea first championed by Trump during his 2016 campaign. The vast majority, about three-quarters, say immigrants hurt the United States, an indication that there is a desire to reduce overall immigration levels.
Of those who prioritized the economy, about half support Trump.
Majority of Iowa caucusgoers say they identify with Trump’s MAGA movement
The majority of Iowa Republicans who are caucusing Monday believe in the need to “Make America Great Again,” a sign of how Donald Trump and his political movement have transformed a state party that denied him a victory eight years ago.
AP VoteCast found that nearly all those participating in the nation’s first presidential contest want significant change in how the country is run, if not a total upheaval. About 6 in 10 identify as supporters of the movement that Trump jumpstarted in his winning 2016 campaign and the former president has nurtured further in his 2024 run for the White House.
The findings from AP VoteCast suggest that Trump is in a strong position as the caucuses began. He shows significant strength among urban, small town and rural communities. Trump also performs well with evangelical Christians and those without a college degree. One relative weakness for Trump comes in the suburbs, where only about 4 in 10 support him.
AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to take part in the caucuses. The survey is conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
Iowa Republicans who showed up to caucus prioritized immigration: about 4 in 10 GOP caucusgoers chose it as the most important issue facing the country. About one-third said it was the economy. Fewer people named other priorities, including foreign policy, health care or energy.
Watch: Iowa caucus voters begin to choose Republican presidential candidate
Oliver O’Connell16 January 2024 01:05
