Is Sudan affected by the escalation of security conditions in Juba? | policy

Khartoum- After muffled disputes between leaders in the government of South Sudan, the security and military situation in the state escalated and the authorities arrested officials close to Vice President Riek Machar.

The armed group attacked the city of Nasser in the state of Upper Nile, which raised fears of the repercussions of developments on Sudan, as the two countries are linked to the longest shared borders in the continent.

Juba is witnessing the capital of southern Sudan, escalating tensions after a series of arrests of officials and the progress of militants in the strategic border border area.

The events exploded with the detention of the security authorities, the Deputy Chief of Staff Qabriel Dub Lam, who is allied with the popular movement in the opposition led by Vice President Riek Machar.

In a later step, Oil Minister Pot Kang Chaoul and many members of the opposition SPLM were arrested in their homes, and the security forces continued to spread around the residence of Machar.

Tension and fears

The arrests came after a high -level presidential meeting held to address the escalating security concerns in the states of Nasser, West Equatorial, and West Bahr al -Ghazal.

In the state of Upper Nile, the “White Army”, a militia whose elements were affiliated with the Al -Nuwair tribe, the second largest tribe of the south, announced its control of Nasser, a town near the Ethiopian border, after clashes with government forces.

These developments increase the intensity of concerns about the future of the peace agreement signed between President Salva Kiir Mayardit and his deputy, Riek Machar, in September 2018, and whether the country will fly again to the cycle of violence, in light of the continued divisions between the parties to the authority in Juba.

The border between the states of Sudan and South Sudan 2010 extends a kilometer, starting from the state of South Darfur from the far east on the border with the Central African Republic, passing through East Darfur, West and South Kordofan, the White Nile, Sennar and the Blue Nile region in the east on the border with Ethiopia.

A Sudanese official reveals to Al -Jazeera Net that leaders in the government of South Sudan, are linked to economic interests with the Rapid Support Forces Command and are working behind Salva Kiir Mayardit, have contributed to recruiting mercenaries and passing weapons across the common border.

The official, who requested not to disclose his identity, explains that the government of South Sudan has confessed to them that the Rapid Support Forces recruited thousands of mercenaries from their country from opposition factions that are not related to Juba, and that it is also afraid to return mercenaries with weapons to destabilize security in their country.

A previous report of United Nations experts also revealed that rapid support relied on a complex financial network in support of its war effort through supply lines that pass through Chad, Libya and South Sudan.

Partial control

In a simultaneous step with the developments of events in South Sudan, the Sudanese army advanced yesterday, Wednesday, and took control of the last strongholds of the Rapid Support Forces in the Dali and Al -Zamoum regions in Sennar, and also took control of the strategic Tabboun region in the White Nile state and towns in the Blue Nile region bordering the state of South Sudan.

The army spokesman, Brigadier General Nabil Abdullah, said in a statement that the army in the Blue and White Niles, Sennar and the Blue Nile region managed in a simultaneous and coordinated activity to destroy the “gaps of the Janjaweed” in the areas of Al -Dali, Al -Zamoum, Al -Jafrat, Melissa, Fali, Ibouraf, Al -Arifin, Rouro, Tabun, and forcibly restored and competently “as he put it.

For his part, the writer and political analyst Ibrahim Shaqlawi believes that the developments of the situation in southern Sudan will cast a negative shadow of stability in the region and Sudan due to the geographical and historical interdependence and common interests, which requires Khartoum to ensure the stability of its borders with its southern neighbor.

The writer explains in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net that the southern state depends on its economy on the revenues of its oil, which is issued through the Sudanese lands and ports, and any matter that will lead to economic damage to the two countries, along with the expected asylum movement if the security conditions deteriorate in Juba, which put pressure on Sudanese resources limited.

Border insurance

The same political analyst also expects that the tension in the security situation in southern Sudan will be reflected in the escalation of the activity of the rapid support forces and the smuggling of weapons across the common border, which is a challenge for Sudan in order to secure its southern borders.

He says that it is better for Sudan to revive his previous efforts in caring for reconciliation between the conflicting southern parties to support the stability of his neighbor directly or through regional mediation.

In turn, the political researcher and interested in African issues, Mohamed Aladdin, says that Sudan was affected by the situation in southern Sudan before it escalated, by exploiting the rapid support forces in the state of security liquidity and its control of crossings with the state of the south adjacent to the Darfur region, in bringing mercenaries and passing weapons, and used southern markets close to the border to sell looted from Khartoum and the state of the island after being transferred to financing field leaders.

According to the researcher’s speech to Al -Jazeera Net, it is not in the interest of Sudan a chaos in its southern neighbor because it does not control large areas of its borders, which calls for diplomatic and security dealings with Juba to contain the negative effects of the conflict.

In his opinion, it is in the interest of Sudan to encourage the parties to prevent the renewed violence that led to the death of 400,000 people years ago, and to intensify the monitoring of the rapid support supply lines that cross through its southern neighbor.

In addition to developing plans to evacuate its subjects from the southern state, the security situation has deteriorated, the same speaker continues, after evacuating more than 4 thousand in the past months after the attacks of Sudan citizens, in response to violence in the state of the island affected by southern nationals.