Possible sliding into the unknown – Dr. Abdullah bin Musa Al Tayer
Dr. Abdullah bin Musa Al Tayer
Fear is the shortest path to war. I remember that when I was in elementary school, a “sedition” occurred between two tribes over a water source, and one of them was killed. This was followed for months by anticipation of revenge. The one whose story I trust – may God have mercy on him – narrates that in the last third of the night they heard a voice. In the courtyard of the house, fear led them to believe that the opposing tribe had raided them to take revenge. The master of the house had no choice but to launch a pre-emptive strike by firing a bullet from a small hole in the door. The sound subsided, and when the sun rose they discovered that the dead man was none other than their donkey.
The Battle of Zapolino, or the Bucket War, which broke out in 1325 AD between Bologna and Modena, Italy, was due to a stolen bucket. Modena soldiers raided Bologna and stole a bucket. The Poles, who felt extremely insulted, declared war to recover their valuable property (the bucket). Despite the trivial reason for the war, it was lost. The battle resulted in heavy casualties on both sides, and Modena emerged victorious in the end, keeping the bucket as a symbol of her victory.
In 1925 AD, a stray dog crossed the border from Greece to Bulgaria near the town of Petrich. Bulgarian border guards shot a Greek soldier while he was chasing his dog. Mutual suspicion and uncertainty about the other’s intentions contributed to the development of this accidental incident into a full-fledged military confrontation between Greece and Bulgaria that required intervention. The League of Nations, which condemned Greece for its disproportionate response to the event, imposed sanctions on it. The Stray Dog War followed the end of World War II, and tension was at its peak, making the timing ideal for the outbreak of this war that had no need at all.
Fear of an imminent attack leads to a decision to strike first, even if the threat is not fully confirmed. Escalating tensions heighten terror and fuel a cycle of mistrust and hostility, making it difficult to resolve conflicts peacefully. A state, army, or nation that suffers under the weight of fear loses… The ability to make the right decision, and thus a poor interpretation of the situation that leads to the risk of war breaking out.
Relations between countries are shrouded in uncertainty about intentions, and thus each country is wary of the other’s intentions, and comes to the point of interpreting good actions as threats. The lack of mutual trust, especially between neighboring countries, creates a security dilemma, which explains the countries’ exaggeration in building their military capabilities and increasing armaments, which creates a spiral of apprehension and preparation for escalation.
Every war has its extent and depth, which constitute the severity of its danger. The clash of ideologies is the most ferocious and brutal war, as each side fears that the victory of its enemy in the war will threaten its way of life, beliefs, culture, customs and traditions, and this leads to a feeling of existential threat, as settlement is seen as Impossible. When it comes to an existential threat, all weapons become legal, and the opponent is not seen in his full humanity. Rather, he may be stripped of its most basic components and viewed as a human monster. If the ideological war is accompanied by the arming of one of the two powers with weapons of mass destruction, especially nuclear weapons, then the paranoia that accompanies mistrust increases the risk of miscalculation and then the outbreak of an endless nuclear war.
Politicians capitalize on fear to garner support for their agenda, even if that means exaggerating threats, demonizing enemies, and using the media and social media to amplify fear through sensationalist reporting or biased coverage, producing a distorted view of reality and increasing public anxiety, thus justifying action. Military, which is exactly what Benjamin Netanyahu is doing, who is leading his people and the region to a dangerous escalation that endangers security and peace.
Fear, the conflict of ideologies, the guarantee of lack of accountability, the possession of excessive power, and the manipulation of feelings through the media are enormous possibilities for the explosion and exacerbation of conflicts and wars for the most trivial reasons.
The war of nations and the war of the stray dog could be repeated on a large scale and with greater brutality in the Middle East region in light of this escalation in which all possibilities combine to prepare for an increase in the pace of escalation.
We live in an era charged with ideological, racial, and existential conflict. The hatred is infused by widespread media outlets, and the energy of hatred is fueled by social media networks, in light of a biased and impotent global system, widespread justification for fear, and great confusion in vision, which allows ample room for miscalculations that may slip through. The region and the world face an unknown fate.
