Lotan: Will the ban on sending European forces to Ukraine end soon? | policy

The French newspaper “Le Tan” said that the election of former US President Donald Trump as president of the United States is putting pressure on European leaders to cross the red lines they set regarding Ukraine, and the issue of sending European forces to Kiev has returned to discussion, even though the soldiers are already there, but in complete cover-up.

Trump had barely waited for his election before he began moving the red lines drawn by the Europeans regarding Ukraine. His claim of being able to end the war “within 24 hours,” in addition to the participation of nearly 10,000 North Korean soldiers alongside the Russians, prompted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to demand more missiles. Long-range anti-aircraft defense systems, and rapid accession to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Although Ukraine’s request to join NATO is met with a wall of rejection, taboos are falling on the European side, especially sending forces to Ukrainian territory, an option that French President Emmanuel Macron had proposed last February, but it was controversial at the time.

1 What exactly are we talking about?

The newspaper said – in a report by Valerie de Graffenried and Camille Bagella – that Trump is the one who sets the tone now, and has called, through his “Truth Social” platform, on Kiev and Moscow for an “immediate ceasefire,” and therefore the Europeans fear that they will be relegated to the rank of passive observers in a “deal.” “Freeze the conflict from which they may be excluded, and therefore do not want to be the ‘active role’ in negotiations related to their security.

In this context, the allies recently indicated their willingness to consider sending forces to Ukrainian territory, and the Ukrainian president clearly expressed for the first time his support for such a deployment, pending his country’s supposed accession to NATO. Macron also raised this issue with Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, telling him About his deliberations with Trump and Zelensky.

2- What different scenarios were taken into consideration?

On this basis, the newspaper saw that there are several options now under discussion, but they are surrounded by some ambiguity for strategic reasons and because many indicators have not been given to Russia, the most important of which will be providing security guarantees to Ukraine with the aim of a ceasefire and ensuring control over a demilitarized zone.

Independent military analyst Niklas Masoher believes that one of the options being studied by the Europeans is consistent with the idea of ​​sending a peacekeeping mission or peacekeeping observers in the form of a “light presence” along the line of contact.

But deploying such a force – according to Masohar – does not constitute a sufficient deterrent for Russia, and this type of observer must be neutral, given that the Kremlin considers the majority of European countries to be parties to the conflict.

There is another, more offensive option – according to the newspaper – which is a “trip wire” deterrent force, according to military terminology, so that a European force is placed in the path of the Russians, but the most extreme scenario is to send European forces directly to the front to support the Ukrainian armed forces, which was what was Macron meant it and it caused a “shock.”

3- Ceasefire

There is no indication at this stage that Russia is ready to come to the negotiating table, but seeing Vladimir Putin’s army go on the offensive outside Donbass and gain momentum over the next six months is a real possibility, and if it prevails the European countries will face a situation very different from a “freeze” situation. Front line.

There is some evidence – as the newspaper says – that could lead to a change in the Russian position, including on the economic level the decline in the value of the ruble that has continued since the summer of 2022, and on the military level the possibility of a shortage of vehicles for the Russian army, and Masoher says, “If these expectations come true, it is likely that… “There is an opportunity for negotiations in 2025.”

4- Countries are ready to launch

The French president is the first European leader to raise the idea of ​​sending European forces. He said, “If the Russians are able to penetrate the front lines and there is a Ukrainian request, we must legitimately ask ourselves this question.”

Although his proposal sparked strong reactions, the discussion on this issue was reactivated during a meeting between Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot stressed that no option should be “ruled out”, and called on the allies not to “establish red lines.” He said, “France and the United Kingdom will not allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to achieve his desire. We will, with our allies, mobilize all necessary efforts to put Ukraine in the situation.” “In the best possible position to achieve a just and lasting peace.”

The Baltic countries, directly neighboring Russia and targeted by hybrid attacks, are among the most ferocious countries against Moscow, and have continued to push for greater support for Kiev, but Trump’s election changes the situation and reinforces thinking about sending troops, and the Baltic and Nordic countries, as well as Poland, can form essential support for a European alliance. possible.

5- The special German case

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz declared that he found it “totally inappropriate to speculate about sending troops, and it is impossible for us to send troops or soldiers to Ukraine as long as the war continues.”

Many commentators criticizing Germany seem to forget that it is the second largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine, although its position could change with the desire of Friedrich Merz, the leader of the conservative opposition and a favorite in the race for the chancellorship, to supply Ukraine with Taurus planes and long-range cruise missiles.

6- Are there really European soldiers there?

The newspaper confirmed the presence of European soldiers in Ukraine, even if no country publicly confirmed this, noting that “strategic ambiguity” prevails, as former French officer Guillaume Ancel believes that “a third of the allies have soldiers on the ground,” either from intelligence, trainers, technicians, or advisors. Military personnel, but they do not usually wear uniforms and therefore do not exist officially.

To add some mystery, these “Western military personnel” currently in Ukraine may be part of the special forces or private military and security companies or are intervening as volunteers, and there are at least 1,500 of them within the International Corps of Ukrainian forces, according to an investigation conducted by the American newspaper “The New York Times.” .

7- The danger of American withdrawal

The danger that exists today – according to the newspaper – is that Trump can end all financial and military aid provided to Kiev, and then the American withdrawal will be devastating with regard to intelligence systems, especially, because the Europeans rely heavily on American intelligence capabilities, knowing that the Americans are able to determine missile paths with high accuracy. While the Europeans do not have the means to do so.

Regarding military aid, it will be impossible for Europe to fill the gap that may arise from a possible American withdrawal. “Europe can produce artillery ammunition for Ukraine, which it is already doing,” explains Niklas Masoher. This is an important element, but it is not everything.

The Europeans are studying several scenarios – according to the newspaper – such as for the United States to adopt a negative stance or to obstruct. Masoher says, “The last option is for the United States to be actively hostile to European countries and focus on its bilateral relations with Russia at the expense of NATO and Europe, and of course.” Ukraine”.

As for the Ukrainians, the worst scenario is a negotiation process between the United States and Russia without the Ukrainians and Europeans, in addition to freezing support for Kiev and the Russians continuing the war.

8- Korean model scenario

The tide turned in favor of the European side when the Ukrainian president broke a taboo and on November 29, realizing that his demand for quick membership in NATO could not be met, called for the alliance to protect the areas still controlled by Kiev, and implicitly indicated that in return he would be prepared to give up. “Immediately” about restoring the territory occupied by Russia, that is, about 18% of the country.

Guillaume Ancel refers to the Korean model, which is the conflict that has been suspended with the border demarcation line monitored by the forces, and therefore it will be a matter of “freezing” the confrontation line, without this being the result of peace negotiations, and this is what pushes the two armies to try to make more progress, “but the matter is “What is very dangerous in a situation like this is that it could continue for 70 years,” as in Korea.