Oil up, rebounds on renewed gasoline demand, weak dollar

WASHINGTON: US consumer prices were unchanged in July due to a sharp drop in the cost of gasoline, delivering the first notable sign of relief for weary Americans who have watched inflation climb over the past two years.

The Consumer Price Index was flat last month after advancing 1.3 percent in June, the Labor Department said on Wednesday in a closely watched report that nevertheless showed underlying inflation pressures remain elevated as the Federal Reserve mulls whether to embrace another super-sized interest rate hike in September.

The reading was the largest month-on-month deceleration of price increases since 1973 and followed on the heels of a roughly 20 percent drop in the cost of gasoline. Prices at the pump spiked in the first half of this year due to the war in Ukraine, hitting a record-high average of more than $5 per gallon in mid-June, according to motorist advocacy group AAA.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.2 percent rise in the monthly CPI in July. The Fed has indicated that several monthly declines in CPI growth would be needed before it lets up on the aggressive monetary policy tightening it has delivered to tame inflation currently running at a four-decade high.

But the lower-than-expected CPI data ignited a strong rally in equity markets, with the S&P 500 index up 1.5 percent in mid-morning trading. Investors immediately pared bets the Fed would deliver a third straight 75-basis-point rate hike at its Sept. 20-21 meeting, instead seeing the US central bank likely to opt for a half-percentage-point hike.

“This is not yet the meaningful decline in inflation the Fed is looking for. But its a start and we expect to see broader signs of easing price pressures over the next few months,” said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics.

US consumer prices have been surging due to a number of factors, including snarled global supply chains, massive government stimulus early in the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Food is one component of the CPI that remained elevated in July, rising 1.1 percent last month after climbing 1 percent in June.

In the 12 months through July, the CPI increased by a weaker-than-expected 8.5 percent following a 9.1 percent rise in June. Underlying inflation pressures, which exclude volatile food and energy components, also showed some green shoots despite remaining strong.

The so-called core CPI rose 0.3 percent in July, a 10-month low, after climbing 0.7 percent in June, helped by an almost 8 percent fall in the cost of airline fares, but still increased 5.9 percent in the 12 months through July, matching the pace in June.

Inflation in the cost of rent and owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence, which is what a homeowner would receive from renting a home, rose at almost the same pace as in June. Shelter costs comprise about 40 percent of the core CPI measure.

Tight labor market 

A separate Labor Department report on Wednesday showed real average weekly earnings rose 0.5 percent in July, the first monthly increase since last September and largest gain since January 2021.

Inflation pressures until recently had been concentrated in goods, but consumers have refocused spending on services as the pandemic eased. Fed policymakers are fearful that accelerating service-sector inflation will be more difficult to unravel.

There was little relief on that front, with prices for services excluding energy-related items rising at a 5.5 percent annual rate in July, the same pace as in the prior month, although there was a decline in the monthly reading.

Wednesday’s inflation reading followed the release last Friday of the Labor Department’s monthly employment report, which showed stronger-than-expected job growth and wage gains in July. The economy created 528,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate fell back to its pre-pandemic low. That employment data will make it harder for the Fed to bring the economy into balance soon.

Labor market tightness is also underscored by the fact that, although US job openings fell to a nine-month low in June, there were still almost two jobs for every unemployed person.