DeSantis now behind Christie in New Hampshire GOP primary as Trump remains dominant: poll

In a poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies between 9 and 10 August, Mr Trump led the GOP field with 48 per cent of the vote.

Vivek Ramaswamy came in second with 11 per cent, and Ron DeSantis in third with 10 per cent.

Mike Pence received eight per cent, while Chris Christie and Nikki Haley got for. Tim Scott received two per cent in the poll.

• Trump: 52.7%
• DeSantis: 14.0%
• Ramaswamy: 7.2%
• Pence: 6.0%
• Haley: 4.0%
• Christie: 2.7%
• Scott: 2.6%
• Burgum: 0.7%
• Hutchinson: 0.5%
• Suarez: 0.2%
• Hurd: 0.1%

Compared to last week, Mr Trump has gained 0.3 per cent and Mr DeSantis has lost 1.6 per cent.

In a poll conducted by Kaplan Strategies between 9 and 10 August, Mr Trump led the GOP field with 48 per cent of the vote.

Vivek Ramaswamy came in second with 11 per cent, and Ron DeSantis in third with 10 per cent.

Mike Pence received eight per cent, while Chris Christie and Nikki Haley got for. Tim Scott received two per cent in the poll.

• Trump: 52.7%
• DeSantis: 14.0%
• Ramaswamy: 7.2%
• Pence: 6.0%
• Haley: 4.0%
• Christie: 2.7%
• Scott: 2.6%
• Burgum: 0.7%
• Hutchinson: 0.5%
• Suarez: 0.2%
• Hurd: 0.1%

Compared to last week, Mr Trump has gained 0.3 per cent and Mr DeSantis has lost 1.6 per cent.

The closest of all the swing states is set to be Wisconsin, some close to the Biden campaign told Politico.

Wisconsin could be the state where Mr Biden reaches 270 electoral votes followed by Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada.

A number of those close to the campaign believe that Georgia is only a winnable state with Mr Trump as the Republican nominee. Others say the state could be won regardless of who the GOP puts forward.

GOP strategist Alex Conant told the outlet: “Does he recover his footing with younger voters, with non-white voters? Can he get those numbers back up? If not, it makes states like North Carolina and Nevada really tough for him.”

“For Trump, can he improve his standing with independents? My sense is that he has not so far. If he can’t, due to reminders of January 6, then you could see Pennsylvania fall off the map, maybe Arizona and Georgia get tougher, too,” he added.

While those in charge of getting the president reelected aren’t overly concerned about Mr Trump’s comeback chances, they told Politico that it will be a close race.

The advisors argue that Mr Biden’s global leadership, his legislative accomplishments and the US’s economic performance after the pandemic will get him another term.

They also note that Mr Trump’s myriad of scandals, mounting legal woes, and extreme stances by MAGA candidates will push away independents and other swing voters.

But they also admit that Mr Trump’s support in swing states remains strong, especially among the white working class.

Mr Trump’s support from unionized workers has also increased despite Mr Biden’s longtime union connections.

The three Rust Belt states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – all have large cities – Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee – where Mr Biden needs to fight drooping enthusiasm among younger voters and African Americans, specifically among men.

Biden spokesperson Kevin Munoz told Politico that “in the midterms and throughout elections this year, we’ve seen that President Biden’s message is the winning one for 2024. That said, we fully expect this to be a competitive election and will take nothing for granted”.

“We must earn every American’s vote, which is why we’re already investing in our battlegrounds and key voting blocs,” he added.

The Biden campaign is focusing on the three Rust Belt states that the president won back in 2020, five people close to the campaign told Politico.

States in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, are toss-ups, according to the Biden team. They were all narrowly won by Mr Biden in 2020.

The Biden allies also believe that Mr Trump is likely to win the Republican nomination.

“Will it probably just be the same states? Yeah, probably,” one individual close to the campaign told the outlet.

But they added that the “abortion issue is alive and well” and that “You have an abortion referendum in places like Florida and Ohio. Well, that makes you take a good look at things. … Maybe all of a sudden Ohio is in play”.

While the White House has sent Mr Biden and top staff to events in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, polling there still shows a close race with Mr Trump.

Last week, a poll from Emerson College had the two at 44 per cent each in Michigan, with Mr Trump in a narrow lead if third-party candidate Cornell West is on the ballot.

A recent poll by Marquette Law School found a 50-50 tie in Wisconsin between Mr Biden and Mr Trump. Similarly, a poll by Quinnipiac revealed that Mr Trump was narrowly ahead in the state, 47 to 46 per cent, however within the margin of error for the poll.

Mr Biden’s team also tried to maximize the ways the campaign could reach 270 electoral votes in 2020 by putting states like Georgia and Arizona, states that the president ended up winning, on its list of target states.

While the simplest path to victory was taking back the traditionally Democratic Rust Belt states that voted for Mr Trump in 2016, the Biden team went for states thought to be harder to win to protect against uncertainty, senior Biden adviser Becca Siegel told Politico.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin were unexpectedly won by Mr Trump in 2016, and they went for Mr Biden in 2020.

But Biden operatives see Florida and Ohio as longshot possibilities, with few agreeing with Ms Weingarten’s belief Ohio could be in play and some say winning in Florida is wishful thinking.

While Mr Obama won both of them in 2008 and 2012, they have since experienced a rightward shift.

The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have placed ads in North Carolina and in Florida – a state most recently won by a Democrat on the presidential level in 2012. Barack Obama also won it in 2008, taking it back for Democrats after two straight wins in the state for President George W Bush.

An amendment to restore abortion rights in the Sunshine State could be on the ballot in 2024. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the main rival for the Republican presidential nomination to former President Donald Trump, has recently signed a six-week ban on abortions.

This week in Ohio, now widely considered to have gone from a purple to a red state, voters rejected a proposal intended to limit abortion rights. Some in Mr Biden’s circle now hope that the state could possibly be in play.

Mr Obama won the state twice, as did Mr Bush and Mr Trump.

Randi Weingarten, the president of the American Federation of Teachers and a Biden ally, told Politico: “I never count out Ohio”.

“What you saw [this week] in terms of Ohio is that fairness won out,” she added.

While many working on getting President Joe Biden reelected in 2024 think the road to victory looks similar to 2020, some see fresh pathways to remaining in the White House for another four years.

Behind that optimism is the steadfast focus of many voters on abortion rights following the fall of Roe v Wade last year.

The main path to a win is seen as going through the so-called blue wall – the Rust Belt states such as Pennsylvania and Michigan – as well as once again attempting to win states that have recently become more winnable for Democrats such as Georgia and Arizona.

But aides to Mr Biden are now working on winning back territory not won by Democrats in a decade or more.

A top comeback opportunity in North Carolina, a state not won by Democrats on the presidential level since President Barack Obama won it in 2008.

A 12-week ban on abortion has gone into effect in the state over the objections of Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, who was overruled after vetoing the bill.

An anonymous Biden campaign official told Politico that it would be “crazy” not to go for North Carolina since Mr Biden lost it by a single percentage point in 2020.