Iowa caucus 2024: Live updates on results, weather and candidates

The Iowa caucus is the first presidential primary event to occur in the US, setting expectations for what’s to come in the months ahead of the 2024 general election.

On the ground in Iowa, The Independent’s John Bowden explains what those watching the caucus closely should be looking out for:

• The Haley surge is it real?

This is Nikki Haley’s moment, and she knows it. After months of focusing much of her efforts in the relatively friendlier territory of New Hampshire, the former governor and ambassador embarked on a last-minute Iowa barnstorm these past few weeks as polling suddenly showed her closing the gap and even possibly overtaking second-place Ron DeSantis across Iowa.

• Donald Trump — can he win it all?

Iowa is ideal ground for the former president as he seeks to wrap up the nominating contest and convince fellow Republicans to throw in the towel. To do that, he needs a victory in Iowa — a convincing one, something to the tune of 15-plus points.

• The weather — will it matter?

The forecast for Monday is for brutally cold temperatures, including a wind chill far below zero.

In a year when voter enthusiasm is thought to already be in short supply, blizzard-esque conditions could come into play in some small way — quite possibly affecting the candidate whose voters presume that he will win, Donald Trump.

• Vivek Ramaswamy — will he drop out?

Mr Ramaswamy, the right-wing gadfly playing for the 4chan-adjacent wing of the Republican Party, has thrown everything he’s got into Iowa.

Even as snowy conditions grew more severe throughout the week, the struggling Ramaswamy campaign attempted to continue a late-game push for voters across the state, leading at one point to his vehicle being trapped on an unplowed road.

Hours before the Iowa caucus is set to begin, former president Donald Trump – and current Republican frontrunner –  took to his social media platform to lash out at his competition.

While Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy meet with voters in Iowa hoping to swing their votes in favour of their campaigns, Mr Trump declared none of them could win.

“Nikki Haley can never win the General Election because she doesn’t have MAGA, and never will!!” Mr Trump wrote on Monday afternoon.

The former UN ambassador is proving to be a viable second-place candidate with polling from Iowa showing her narrowing the field between herself and Mr Trump. Though the former president still maintains a significant lead over her and other candidates.

“Ron DeSanctimonious, at least, is MAGA-Lite… Vivek Votes are wasted should come to “TRUMP.”,” the former president wrote.

Florida Governor and 2024 Republican candidate Ron DeSantis is expected to hold a rally in Iowa shortly to speak with potential voters ahead of the caucus tonight.

Ron DeSantis did everything right in Iowa. The Florida governor has checked all the boxes that Republicans must complete if they are to stand a chance in Hawkeye State.

He completed the “Full Grassley,” named for Iowa’s long-serving Republican Senator Chuck Grassley, where he visited all 99 counties in the state. He made the hard sell at Iowa’s State Fair. He received the endorsement of Kim Reynolds, the state’s governor, and Bob Vander Plaats, the head of the Iowa Family Leader and a kingmaker.

Mr DeSantis has staked everything on Iowa, a state that should have been a perfect match for him.

But just four days before the first-in-the-nation contest, former President Donald Trump is still blocking out the sun in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average in the state. At 52.3 per cent, Mr Trump remains far ahead of Mr DeSantis, who has now even lost the second spot to Ms Haley, who is at 17.7 per cent to Mr DeSantis’s 16.2 per cent.

Mr Vander Plaats tells The Independent that Mr DeSantis “needs to convince those who are supporting Nikki Haley, ‘listen, you want an alternative to Trump? I’m your guy’. And he needs to convince the Trump voters – ‘Hey, if you want all the good of Trump, but without all the drama, then I’m your guy’”.

Despite record-low temperatures, a wind chill warning and snowy conditions, the Iowa caucus will continue as planned in all 99 precincts.

A spokesperson for the Iowa Republican Party told The Washington Post that no precinct had changed its location or closed today due to the weather.

We’re not hearing that at this time,” Kush Desai told the newspaper. “If it happens, these would be one-off situations.”

Mr Desai said that it is not usual for precincts to change under certain circumstances.

Ahead of the Iowa caucus on Monday, final polling from The Des Moines Register, NBC News, and Mediacom showed Florida Governor Ron DeSantis lost the support of Iowans over the last month.

When asked in December 2023 if Mr DeSantis would be their first choice, 19 per cent of respondents said he was.

But when asked in January 2024 if Mr DeSantis was their first choice, 16 per cent of respondents said he was.

The drop is small but indicates that Mr DeSantis is losing momentum with primary voters – typically the most politically active members of communities.

Instead, Nikki Haley has gained momentum having jumped from 16 per cent in December 2023 to 20 per cent in January 2024.

An already intense winter storm, made worse by frigid wind chills is expected to make parts of Iowa feel in the -20s°F or -30s°F.

The National Weather Service issued a wind chill warning for parts of Iowa as the caucus goes underway and reminded people that frostbite can occur in just minutes of exposure to the harsh conditions.

Former president Donald Trump instructed a climate protester to “go home to mommy” after the activist interrupted an Iowa rally, accusing him of taking millions from oil and gas executives as president.

“Trump, you’ve taken millions!” a demonstrator yelled on 14 January in the middle of Mr Trump’s speech, held one day before the Iowa caucuses.

The former president snapped, “Thank you, darling. Thank you.”

A smile emerged on the Republican candidate’s face as the crowd booed at the protester. Mr Trump then snapped, “Go home to mommy. Your mommy’s waiting.”