Election 2024 live updates: Trump trails Biden by six points in new head-to-head poll

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by six points, 50 to 44 per cent, among registered voters, up from a one-point lead in December, according to a new poll.

“The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.

The same hypothetical 2024 general election poll released on 20 December was considered too close to call as Mr Biden led by only 47 to 46 per cent.

Gustaf Kilander digs into the numbers:

Nevada will be the next state to vote for the Republican nominee for president.

But one could be forgiven for not remembering that fact, given the lack of media attention.

Here’s John Bowden to explain.

Here’s the notorious Jordan Belfort offering his thoughts on the man in the White House to Piers Morgan.

A strong stomach required for this one.

Trump will remain on the 2024 presidential primary ballot in Illinois following a unanimous vote by the state’s Board of Elections to dismiss an attempt to remove the former president under the 14th Amendment.

On Tuesday, the board, composed of eight appointed members, dismissed a lawsuit brought by four Illinois voters and Free Speech For People that challenged the former president’s eligibility to appear on the ballot due to his alleged involvement in the January 6 attack on the Capitol.

The voters asked the electoral board to disqualify Trump under Section Three of the 14th Amendment – known as the insurrection clause. They cited recent decisions in Colorado and Maine as examples of Trump violating the little-known provision.

However, the Illinois Board of Election said that they did not believe they had the authority to determine Trump’s eligibility because it raises a constitutional question and would require them to look outside their scope.

“There’s no doubt in my mind that he manipulated, instigated, aided and abetted an insurrection on January 6,” Republican board member, Catherine McCrory said on Tuesday morning.

“However, it’s not my place to rule on that today.”

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley sat down with the hosts of the Breakfast Club and offered some of her sharpest criticism yet of former President Donald Trump in a wide-ranging interview.

During a conversation that also touched on America’s past and present issues with racism, Ms Haley spoke primarily with fellow South Carolinian Charlamagne Tha God as she said that Donald Trump was wrong for the country’s future.

She also explained why it has taken her so long to make that argument.

Voters of Tomorrow, a Gen Z-led nonpartisan organization that harnesses the political power of young Americans and previously spearheaded the “S.W.I.F.T. Initiative” to fight Ticketmaster and other monopolies, today issued the following statement on Donald Trump’s “holy war” against Taylor Swift:

Taylor warned us that the haters gonna hate, and we know all too well that Trump is America’s biggest hater. Now, the former president is attacking Taylor herself — but we are not surprised. Gen Z knew Trump was trouble when he walked into the White House and waged war on our abortion rights, voting rights, and safety. Of course, he can’t help but go after our favorite cultural icon, too. While Trump claims he is ‘more popular’ than Taylor, he is not fooling anyone. Taylor is headlining the most successful tour in history, drawing crowds that Trump only sees in his wildest dreams.

Gen Z has a message for Trump: Go ahead and keep attacking Taylor Swift. We dare you. By picking a fight with Taylor, you are picking a fight with young voters. And the last thing you need is an even worse reputation with us come November.

Moody’s Analytics has released its latest election model report, predicting that Joe Biden will win re-election by a thin margin, supposing average turnout.

The second term could be secured on the strength of the economy but the firm warns “the upcoming presidential election will be close”.

However, as in 2020, the election will depend on key battlegrounds, with something of a cushion for the president if he carries all or most of them.

Similar to 2020’s close and contentious race, the 2024 election will be determined in a few battleground states. On the state level, the outcome is likely to be even closer than in 2020 with five states decided by less than 1 percentage point compared with only three in the previous election. The narrowness of Biden’s margins in Georgia (+0.9 ppt), North Carolina (+0.3 ppt), Nevada (+0.2 ppt), Pennsylvania (+0.8 ppt), and Arizona (-0.8 ppt) suggests that the outcome may not be determined on election night as several states face the prospect of automatic recounts and court challenges—a situation likely to raise anxieties given the aftermath of the 2020 election.

Biden’s projected 308 electoral vote tally provides some cushion. If we start flipping the results of his slimmest victories, the loss of North Carolina and Nevada would trim his vote total to 286, still enough to achieve victory. Losing Georgia, which has 16 electoral votes, would then bring Biden to the exact threshold he needs to win a second term. Therefore, Pennsylvania appears to be the key to winning or losing the 2024 election. Losing the Keystone State’s 19 electoral votes would drop Biden to 267 votes, if he also loses North Carolina and Nevada, and 251 votes, if he also loses Georgia, swinging the election to Trump. In other words, our model suggests that the upcoming presidential election will likely be determined in Pennsylvania.

Just a few hours after a poll showing Joe Biden trailing Donald Trump in six key swing states, a new Quinnipiac University national poll shows the current president pulling ahead of the former president by six points.

Mr Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 to 44 per cent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup. The survey was conducted between 25-29 January and updates a 20 December survey that had the two at 47-46 per cent in favour of the incumbent.

In today’s poll, Democrats (96-2 per cent) and independents (52-40 per cent) support Mr Biden, while Republicans (91-7 per cent) support Mr Trump.

There is good news for Nikki Haley, Mr Trump’s rival for the Republican Party nomination. In a head-to-head match up against Mr Biden, the former UN Ambassador beats the incumbent president 47 per cent to 42 per cent.

After the E Jean Carroll defamation trial jury ordered Donald Trump pay her $83.3m in damages, things could be about to get a whole lot worse for the Republican front-runner as another potentially devastating lawsuit draws to a close in New York this week.

This one poses a significant threat to the candidate’s vast real estate empire and could, potentially, see him prevented from ever doing business in his hometown again.