5 decisive factors that led to a catastrophe in Israel policy

In a shocking report published on Tuesday evening, March 4, 2025, the Israeli Public Security Agency (Shin Bet) revealed a series of serious intelligence and political failures that paved the way for the October 7 attack, that event that shook the pillars of Israel and reformulated the Palestinian-Israeli conflict with unprecedented violence.

The report, which goes beyond the list of facts to direct accusations of the political level, opens deep political wounds in the heart of Israeli society, and puts Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his extremist government in front of a legal test that may be the most severe in their history.

Not only that, it also reflects a strategic crisis that goes beyond security into existential questions about Israel’s ability to face future challenges.

Double failures: intelligence and political

The report defines five main reasons that led to this security catastrophe:

• Violations of the repeated Temple Mount
• The illness of the Palestinian prisoners
• Political leadership’s failure to estimate the threat
• Exaggerated dependence on the security wall and military power
• The absence of effective control over the security services.

The report goes further, announcing that the attack plan has been known to the Shabak since 2018 and 2022, but it has not been translated into a tangible threat that calls for a proactive response, as a result of the difficulty of penetrating the Palestinian resistance in Gaza and a political approach based on the management of the conflict instead of confronting it.

This approach, which was adopted by the Netanyahu government over the years, allowed the resistance to develop its military and regulatory capabilities away from the eyes of the Israeli intelligence, which led to the October 7 attack that killed more than 1,200 Israelis, and captured more than 250 others, and revealed the fragility of the security model that Israel has long been promoted as a guarantee of its stability.

This recognition is not limited to the intelligence side, but extends to the political leadership, as it strikes the credibility of Netanyahu and its coalition government, which includes extremist parties such as “religious Zionism” led by Bastlel Smutrich and “Autasma Judait” led by Itamar bin Ghafir.

Netanyahu has been his political image as the first guarantor of Israel’s security, based on a discourse that he depicted as a state man who is able to deter any external threat.

But the report proves that this image was based on flimsy foundations, as its long -term policies enable the Palestinian resistance to carry out an unprecedented attack, which made October 7 a catastrophic turning point in his political career.

This failure is not just a transient error, but rather as a result of a deliberate strategy that preferred to avoid the decisive confrontation with the Palestinians, which allowed them to exploit the void in their favor, as the events showed.

The escalation of internal conflict: divisions threatening the political structure

The influence of the report is not limited to Netanyahu, but rather exceeds it to highlight a sharp internal conflict between Israeli institutions. While the Israeli army, which was published in July 2024, was less severe to blame the political leadership, the Shin Bet take a strict position, directly accusing the government.

This contrast reveals a deep division since the attempts of judicial reforms in 2023, which sparked unprecedented popular protests that lasted for months, and after the outbreak of the war on Gaza.

The Shin Bet President, Ronin Bar, who in February 2025 called for the formation of an official investigation committee to respond to the “conspiracy theories” that tried to absolve the government, now finds himself in an open confrontation with extremist ministers such as Ben Ghaffir, who demanded his resignation earlier, accusing him of complacency.

This conflict reflects a crisis of confidence between the security and political establishment, as the Shin Bet seeks to justify its position by referring to its repeated warnings that have not been taken into account, while the government is trying to hold the security services responsible for failure to avoid accountability.

This tension gives the Israeli opposition- led by Yair Lapid and Benin Gantz- a powerful tool for attacking Netanyahu. The report supports its narration that the current government bears the responsibility of “historical failure” that led to the largest security breach in decades, and may lead to a new wave of protests or premature elections.

The hostages families, which have organized repeated demonstrations since October 2023 to demand the return of their children, find in the report an additional evidence of the government’s failure, which increases internal pressure on Netanyahu in light of a worsening political crisis.

The complexities of current negotiations: between pressure and rejection

The report comes in a minute, amidst the negotiations of the exchange of hostages and prisoners between Israel and Hamas, and after the issuance of the emergency Arab Summit in Cairo on March 4, 2025, which called for the stopping of aggression on Gaza and the West Bank, the reconstruction of the Strip with a huge amount, and the holding of Palestinian elections within a year. Acknowledging an intelligence failure puts Israel in a relative weak position on the negotiating table, but at the same time it drives it to tighten its positions to compensate for this weakness. Instead of making fundamental concessions in response to Arab and international pressure, Israel adheres to incapacity for Hamas, such as handing over weapons or prominent military leaders, as Foreign Minister Jadaoun Saar said on March 4, “We need an agreement”, while asserting that Israel “will not accept the repetition of October 7.”

This position reflects Israel’s attempt to restore its security prestige, which has received a strong blow, but it may increase the complexity of negotiations in light of the American pressure from the Donald Trump administration to launch the hostages, as it threatened in February 2025 with severe consequences if this was not achieved.

On the other hand, Israel uses the report to justify its current military escalation in Gaza and Syria, where Netanyahu stressed in his speech to the Knesset on March 3 that “the war will not stop”, in an attempt to prove that the force is still its first tool to face challenges.

But this approach raises questions about its effectiveness, especially in front of resistance that has proven its ability to withstand and plan deeply.

Regional dimensions: the roots and repercussions of the crisis

Regionally, the report links the October 7 attack with the violations of the Temple Mount and the abuse of Palestinian prisoners, stressing that the policies of the extremist government- such as the settlers ’incursions into the Al-Aqsa Mosque in 2022 and 2023, and the arrest of more than 5,000 Palestinians in the West Bank during that period- was the spark that led to the bombing of the situation.

These policies are not new. Since the uprising of the stones in 1987 and Al -Aqsa Intifada in 2000, the Palestinian issue has proven that any provocation in Jerusalem or injustice to the prisoners is translated into strong reactions.

But what distinguishes this report is his explicit recognition that these policies, which were supported by extremist religious parties in the Netanyahu government, were not just tactical errors, but rather part of a strategic approach that led to an unaccounted escalation.

On the other hand, Israel is now facing increasing regional pressure, as was evident in the statement of the Arab Summit that called for the reconstruction of Gaza, and the rejection of any displacement of the Palestinians, which Israel considers a threat to its plans aimed at imposing a permanent reality in the West Strip and the West Bank.

But instead of direct confrontation with Arab countries, Israel relies on American support to neutralize this pressure, taking advantage of Trump’s strict positions and recent statements.

This dependence reveals another weakness, as Israel has become hostage to Washington’s decisions at a time when international criticism escalates, and the 2024 demonstrations in Europe and America have shown against its policies in Gaza.

Strategic crisis: power limits

Strategic, the report reveals a deep crisis in the Israeli security model. Excessive dependence on the security wall and military power did not prevent the resistance from carrying out a complex attack that continued to plan years, benefiting from advanced tunnels and military capabilities that exceeded expectations.

The difficulty of penetrating the resistance in Gaza, as the report indicated, confirms a decline in Israel’s ability to collect intelligence information from inside the Strip, which was one of the columns of its superiority for decades.

This failure raises a fundamental question: Is the strategy of the pure power, which Israel has adopted since its foundation, is still able to confront a popularly rooted and able resistance to exploit the weaknesses of the occupation?

Historically, Israel has resorted to military force to impose its control, as in the 1967 and 1982 wars, but the October 7 attack proves that this model is no longer enough to ensure security.

The security wall, which cost billions of dollars, was nothing but a fragile material barrier in front of the will of resistance that was able to penetrate it in a relatively easily, restoring the Barlev line in the October 1973.

This historical similarity is not a coincidence. Rather, it is evidence that Israel is facing a strategic challenge that requires a radical reassessment of its policies, but the current government seems unable to present an alternative vision, contented with the traditional responses that have proven to be failed.

Future repercussions: a legal crisis waving on the horizon

In the short term, Israel will respond to the report with a calculated military escalation in Gaza and Syria, as it is currently in the Syrian southern influence area that it announced in January 2025, in an attempt to prove that it is still in control despite the open failures.

But this response may not be sufficient to contain internal repercussions. Popular pressure from the families of the hostages, which accuses the government of failing to restore its children more than 17 months after the war, escalates day by day, and it may turn into a wave of widespread protests added to those that Israel witnessed in 2023 against judicial reforms.

The tension between security and political institutions may lead to a crisis of a ruling that threatens the stability of the ruling coalition, especially with the increasing calls for the formation of an official investigation committee that may reveal more embarrassing facts.

In the long run, the report opens the door for an internal discussion that may change the rules of the game in Israel. Acknowledging the failure of the traditional security model raises questions about the feasibility of the continuation of the policy of power in the face of a Palestinian people that proves its ability to withstand and adapt.

Arab and international pressure, as was evident in the statement of the Arab Summit that called for the reconstruction of Gaza and the organization of Palestinian elections, may push Israel to make symbolic concessions in the negotiations, such as launching a limited number of prisoners in exchange for hostages, but it will not abandon its stated goal: “complete victory”, as Netanyahu stressed in his last speech to the Knesset.

Conclusion: Resistance to people who are not broken

In conclusion, the Shin Bet report reveals deep political wounds that shake Israel from within, and put Netanyahu and his extremist government in front of an existential challenge that may determine their political destiny.

The failure of the policies of the conflict management and intelligence failures complicate the political and military scene, and pushes Israel to defend itself with a military force based on America’s support to neutralize Arab and international pressure.

But these wounds may turn into a long -term legitimate crisis, which threatens its political stability in the future, at a time when it needs to reassess its strategy in front of a Palestinian people that proves day after day that its resistance is not broken by force alone.

The Shin Bet report, with all the failures it revealed, confirms that Israel is facing an irreplaceable opponent with walls or weapons, but also requires its confrontation with a political vision that goes beyond the narrow horizon of the current government.

Will Israel learn the lesson, or will it be drowned in the delusions of power until it collides with an inevitable truth?

The coming days may bear the answer, but what is certain is that the Palestinians will remain steadfast in the face of all challenges, as they have always done.