“UNIFIL” between continuing and withdrawing in light of interlocking international alliances policy
Beirut- Amid the intensification of the political and security debate in Lebanon, the file of the international emergency forces “UNIFIL” is leading the scene, with the approaching date of the UN Security Council approaching on August 25 on the draft resolution extending its mission, before the end of its mandate on August 31, 2026.
The council’s discussions revolve around a draft presented by France to extend the mandate an additional year, amid a diplomatic battle, and in light of an American-Israeli militancy that pressures towards ending the mission of the international power or radically amending its powers, leading to its withdrawal within only six months.
UNIFIL includes about 11,000 soldiers, and plays a pivotal role in preventing escalation between Lebanon and Israel through a joint communication mechanism, in addition to its field patrols to monitor the situation on the ground in neutrality, and monitor any military violations, as well as support the Lebanese army in its duties.
Limbing resources
US President Donald Trump had signed, On July 24, The “deductions of 2025” law Who spent the cancellation of about 203 million dollars from the allocations in 2024, and 158 million dollars from the allocations in 2025 directed to support the peacekeeping operations, justifying the decision in several reasons, including dissatisfaction with the performance of the “UNIFIL” forces.
In a later step, the United States voted against the United Nations General Assembly resolution on July 30 on the “UNIFIL” budget, while the decision approved the rest of the members, except for Sierra Leone and Somalia, which refrained from voting.
On the other hand, the Lebanese President General Joseph Aoun, the leader of “UNIFIL”, reported General Diwado Abanara, during his reception in the Baabda Palace, that Beirut adhered to the survival of international forces in the south until the completion of the implementation of Resolution 1701 with all its items, and the deployment of the Lebanese army along the border.
The President of the Republic emphasized that Lebanon has started contacts with the member states of the Security Council, and the sister and friendly countries, to ensure the extension of UNIFIL as a necessity to protect security and stability in the south, especially after the government’s decision to raise the number of the Lebanese army deployed there to 10 thousand soldiers.
Conditional renewal
Political analyst George Alam believes, in his interview with Al -Jazeera Net, that Lebanon stands in front of a sensitive entitlement related to the fate of the UNIFIL forces, amid different weighting between the extension for a full year or six months, and perhaps with the reduction in the number of its elements.
Alam notes that the debate in the renewal is inseparable from fundamental questions, most notably the American position, and whether Washington will continue to finance the tasks of UNIFIL or withhold its share of support, especially since the American delegate Morgan Ortigos has not provided any clear indicators on this file.
The political analyst also stops at the job of UNIFIL in the next stage, asking about the feasibility of its continuation, “If the Lebanese army has extended its control over the entire points that Israel withdrew, is its role limited to helping the state in completing the liberation, or is it moving within a coordination ceiling with Tel Aviv?”
He adds that any possible reduction in the number of its forces opens the door to questions about the nature of the remaining countries, and will the battalions coming from small countries withdraw, or the units that represent the major powers such as France, Italy and Germany remain.
It is aware that the image of UNIFIL has reflects the image of the future of the south itself, with fear that it will turn into a demilitarized zone and it is not possible to re -launch the reconstruction and development workshop, in the context of what he described as an American -Israeli security agenda that might be imposed on Lebanon.
He notes that the current scene revolves around Ukraine, and cannot be separated from the struggle of international influence between Russia on the one hand, and the United States and Europe on the other hand.
The political analyst is afraid that Lebanon will turn into something similar to “Ukraine, the Middle East”, that is, an overlap between the major powers.
He concludes, “All of these possibilities open the door to a fateful question.” Are these intersections saved Lebanon unified, or are they pushing it towards an unannounced division into spheres of influence? “
Gradual withdrawal
For his part, political analyst Tawfiq Shoman, in his interview with Al -Jazeera Net, believes that the draft resolution circulating between the major countries, which France advanced, paved the way to extend the mandate of the International Emergency Forces (UNIFIL) until the end of August 2026.
But Shoman drew attention to the fifth item in the text of the project, which talks about the intention of the Security Council withdrawing “UNIFIL” from Lebanon, without specifying a clear date, which enhances the impression that the extension this year may be the last, in line with the American desire that has reduced its contribution to financing the international forces in line with the Israeli position that the uselessness of its survival.
He adds that the draft resolution also includes an invitation to enhance coordination between “UNIFIL” and the Lebanese army, which is understood from it that the international forces will not enjoy freedom of movement as before.
Shoman believes that these items, in addition to the American pressure to reduce the number of international forces, reflect a clear trend for the “UNIFIL” page in Lebanon in stages, leading to the end of their mission.
