2024 latest polls: Trump and Biden tied in hypothetical 2024 rematch

Ron DeSantis’s battle with Disney doesn’t appear to be doing him any favours with the Republican electorate, according to a NYT/Siena College poll.

Thirty-eight per cent of GOP voters said they would back a candidate pledging to fight “woke” corporations, while 52 per cent would support “a candidate who says that the government should stay out of deciding what corporations should support”.

The poll found that 30 per cent of Republican voters think that transgender people should be accepted as the gender they identify with, while 58 per cent said those identities should be rejected.

Half of all GOP voters support gay marriage, while 41 per cent oppose it, the poll found.

More than half – 51 per cent – said they would back a candidate who pledged to guarantee individual freedom instead of “traditional values”. Forty per cent said they would back the latter.

Slamming “woke” institutions and beliefs may be less effective to persuade Republican primary voters than previously believed, polling shows.

NYT/Siena College polls of national and Iowa GOP voters have revealed that candidates were unlikely to convince voters to support them by mostly focusing on battling “wokeism”.

Republicans are instead more enticed by more libertarian economic policies and strong messaging on law and order, specifically regarding cities and the border.

When Mr Trump was in Iowa in June, Mr Trump said: “I don’t like the term ‘woke’. It’s just a term they use — half the people can’t even define it, they don’t know what it is.”

While the line appeared to be intended as a criticism of Mr DeSantis, the polling indicates that Mr Trump me be on to something.

Choosing between two hypothetical GOP candidates, 24 per cent of national GOP voters supported “a candidate who focuses on defeating radical ‘woke’ ideology in our schools, media and culture” instead of “a candidate who focuses on restoring law and order in our streets and at the border”.

Meanwhile, 65 per cent said they would support the law and order candidate.

In the group of voters aged over 65, a demographic with high voter turnout, only 17 per cent preferred the “anti-woke” option.

Former president Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign is asking supporters whether they think he should participate in the first Republican primary debate – in a not-so-subtle way.

On his campaign site, it provides a poll: “Should President Trump show up to the GOP debate?” The clickable choices are: “Yes” or “No – let all of the many other candidates attack each other while President Trump unites the rest of our party to focus on the important battle of beating Biden.”

Ron DeSantis’s battle with Disney doesn’t appear to be doing him any favours with the Republican electorate, according to a NYT/Siena College poll.

Thirty-eight per cent of GOP voters said they would back a candidate pledging to fight “woke” corporations, while 52 per cent would support “a candidate who says that the government should stay out of deciding what corporations should support”.

The poll found that 30 per cent of Republican voters think that transgender people should be accepted as the gender they identify with, while 58 per cent said those identities should be rejected.

Half of all GOP voters support gay marriage, while 41 per cent oppose it, the poll found.

More than half – 51 per cent – said they would back a candidate who pledged to guarantee individual freedom instead of “traditional values”. Forty per cent said they would back the latter.

Slamming “woke” institutions and beliefs may be less effective to persuade Republican primary voters than previously believed, polling shows.

NYT/Siena College polls of national and Iowa GOP voters have revealed that candidates were unlikely to convince voters to support them by mostly focusing on battling “wokeism”.

Republicans are instead more enticed by more libertarian economic policies and strong messaging on law and order, specifically regarding cities and the border.

When Mr Trump was in Iowa in June, Mr Trump said: “I don’t like the term ‘woke’. It’s just a term they use — half the people can’t even define it, they don’t know what it is.”

While the line appeared to be intended as a criticism of Mr DeSantis, the polling indicates that Mr Trump me be on to something.

Choosing between two hypothetical GOP candidates, 24 per cent of national GOP voters supported “a candidate who focuses on defeating radical ‘woke’ ideology in our schools, media and culture” instead of “a candidate who focuses on restoring law and order in our streets and at the border”.

Meanwhile, 65 per cent said they would support the law and order candidate.

In the group of voters aged over 65, a demographic with high voter turnout, only 17 per cent preferred the “anti-woke” option.

Ninety-seven per cent of Trump-supporting Iowa Republicans taking part in the recent NYT/Siena poll said that they support the former president strongly.

That figure for Mr DeSantis is 76 per cent. For those backing other candidates, 54 per cent said they support them strongly.

The NYT/Siena poll of Iowa Republicans has revealed that around 47 per cent of those backing Mr Trump are open to supporting other candidates.

Among GOP voters in the state with a college degree, Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis are tied at 26 per cent support each.

But in a head-to-head poll in Iowa between Mr Trump and Mr DeSantis, the former president leads his rival, 55 to 39 per cent.

If the matchup is limited to college-educated voters, Mr DeSantis leads Mr Trump in Iowa 53 to 38 per cent.

Enthusiasm among primary voters is an important factor for candidates involved in especially close races — or, conversely, can be seen as the reason those races are close to begin with. Mr Biden is thought to be headed for a close reelection fight as voters sour on the idea of re-electing someone who was already the oldest individual to ever take the oath of office of president, even as his likely opponent is battered by escalating legal troubles.

Hillary Clinton’s inability to stoke enthusiasm for her campaign after her defeat of Bernie Sanders in the 2016 Democratic primary was viewed as a significant factor leading to her eventual loss to Mr Trump that year.

But as it stands, Mr Biden will almost certainly be his party’s nominee, concerns about age aside. His two announced challengers for the Democratic nomination, Robert F Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson, trailed him by more than 50 points each.

The NYT/Siena poll was conducted between 23-27 July and included a subpopulation of 296 likely Democratic primary voters. Information about the poll’s methodology can be found here.